The latest forecast from Cox Automotive suggests a notable bounce-back in U.S. new-vehicle sales for July, following a widespread software outage that affected sales and reporting last month. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for July is projected to increase to 16.0 million, rebounding from the unexpectedly low level of 15.3 million in June.
In June, disruptions in dealership point-of-sale software programs likely prevented some sales from being completed and reported, thus leading to the forecasted higher sales pace. These delayed sales are expected to be included in July’s final tally and to contribute to the increase in the sales pace, which has averaged 15.5 million over the last 18 months.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, remarked, “July new-vehicle sales are expected to finish within the range of 15-16 million, as it has consistently over the last year. However, July sales will likely include some delays from June, pushing the market toward the upper end of the sales range. How much is unknown, but tens of thousands of vehicles may have been affected. Fleet sales are also unknown but will be an important factor in July’s result. Fleet sales can lift or suppress the monthly sales pace, and recent trends suggest less activity from this channel.”
According to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book sales estimates, July sales volume is expected to be 1.29 million, down 1.3% from last year and 3% from last month. Monthly new-vehicle sales volume has averaged 1.31 million units through the first half of 2024. Cox Automotive forecasts total new-vehicle sales for 2024 to reach 15.7 million, marking an increase from 2023 and the best year since 2019.
All percentages are based on raw volume, not the daily selling rate. July 2024 has 25 selling days, the same as last year but one less than last month.
