Toyota Motor has raised concerns that California’s ambitious electric vehicle (EV) mandates, set to begin next year, are “impossible” to meet and could result in fewer options for consumers in states adopting these rules.
Jack Hollis, Chief Operating Officer of Toyota Motor North America, expressed strong doubts during a media roundtable on Friday, stating that the targets laid out in the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) “Advanced Clean Cars II” regulations are unachievable. These regulations require that 35% of 2026 model-year vehicles be zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), a goal that includes battery-electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, and some plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Hollis said, “I have not seen a forecast by anyone … government or private, anywhere that has told us that that number is achievable. At this point, it looks impossible.”
In addition, the mandate is part of a broader push by California and 12 other states, along with Washington D.C., to transition to cleaner vehicles. As of now, only three states—California, Colorado, and Washington—have seen EV or PHEV adoption rates above 20%, with other states, such as New York and New Mexico, far behind the required levels.
According to J.D. Power, the national average for EV/PHEV adoption is just 9% through October 2024. Hollis emphasized that the lack of demand for EVs in many markets will inevitably limit the choices available to customers, as automakers are already shifting disproportionately towards electrified models in states that have adopted the regulations.
Toyota has long advocated for a single national emission regulation standard to ensure fairness across all states. Hollis stated, “We would always want a 50-state rule, because that way we can treat all customers, all dealers, equally.” The company’s concerns come at a time when the future of California’s regulatory power is uncertain. During Donald Trump’s first term, a legal battle arose over states’ rights to set their own emissions standards, a fight that may resurface when Trump returns to the White House. While Hollis hoped that such a legal battle could be avoided, he stressed the need for a resolution that aligns the federal government, states, and the auto industry. Toyota’s preferred outcome would be to see CARB and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) align on more achievable targets, even if they remain challenging.
Without changes to the current EV mandates, Toyota warns that the automotive market will face disruption, forcing automakers to shift their focus away from consumer demand in favor of regulatory compliance. Hollis concluded by noting that, if left unchanged, the mandates could result in what he described as “unnatural acts” in the industry.
